Clifton R. Wharton Jr., “The Green Revolution: Cornucopia or Pandora’s Box,” Foreign Affairs 47, no. 3 (Apr. 1969), 464-476.

Notes

• 464 – “The discussion of the phenomenon [the Green Revolution] tends to cluster around two views. ON the one hand, some observers now believe that the race btween food and population is over, that the new agricultural technology constitutes a cornucopia for the developing world, and that victory is in sight in the ‘War on Hunger.’ Others see this development as opening a Pandora’s box; its very success will produce a number of new problems which are far more subtle and difficult than those faced during the development of the new technology.”
• 465 – “The reasons for believing that the new technology will not in fact spread nearly as widely or as rapidly as supposed and predicted include, first, the fact that the availability of irrigated land imposes at least a short-run limit to the spread of the new high-yield varieties. Most of these require irrigation and careful water control throughout the growing cycle.”
• 466 – “Third, the adoption of the new technology is likely to be much slower where the crop is a basic food staple, grown by a farmer for family consumption. Such farmers are understandably reluctant to experiment with the very survival of their families. Peasant producers are obviously far more numerous in the developing world than are commercial farmers and the task of converting them to a more modern technology is considerably more difficult. So far, spectacular results have been achieved primarily among the relatively large commercial farmers. Some semi-subsistence farmers have begun to grow the new varieties, but the rate at which they adopt them may be slower.”
• 467 – “Fifth, many of the new varieties are non-photosensitive and the shorter term will allow two or three crops per year instead of one. . . . In addition, there may be resistance if the new harvest pattern conflicts with religious or traditional holidays which have grown up around the customary agricultural cycles.”
• 468 – “Nevertheless, if we assume that the new varieties will continue to live up to expectations and spread rapidly and widely, the increased production will in turn lead to a new set of difficulties. First, large tracts planted in one of the new varieties may be susceptible to disease and infestation which could cause massive losses. Heretofore, reliance upon seed selected by individual farmers meant that neighboring farms growing the same crop usually planted two or more different varieties or strains. This heterogeneity provided a built-in protection against widespread plant diseases, since not all varieties are equally susceptible. But where a single variety is introduced, covering large contiguous areas, the dangers of pathologic susceptibility are multiplied.”